This Friday in Zurich, Ireland will learn who they will face in their World Cup qualification group. The formats of UEFA and FIFA’s tournaments can be confusing, so here’s a simple breakdown of how things work.
The New World Cup FormatThe old World Cup format pitted 32 teams into eight groups of four and onto the knockout rounds. For the 2026 tournament, it expands to 48 teams: 45 qualifying nations and the three host countries—the United States, Mexico, and Canada—qualify automatically.At first glance, this might feel like Ireland’s chances of qualifying have increased. Sadly, that’s not the case.How Europe Qualifies for 2026Europe has been allocated 16 places for 2026, three more than previous tournaments. The teams will be drawn into 12 groups, each containing either four or five teams. The 12 group winners automatically qualify for the World Cup, with four others securing their place through a 16-team playoff. This playoff will feature the group runners-up and the four best-placed Nations League teams that finish outside the top two in their qualifying group.
Ireland‘s Group and OpponentsIreland can end up in either a four-team group or a five-team group. Because of their admissibility to the Nations League playoffs against Bulgaria in March, there are some restrictions on the opponents they can get. But because only one team from the Nations League finals or playoffs can be in any five-team group, Ireland can be sure they will be in a four-team group unless there is some freak distribution in which all 12 groups do not contain a playoff team—in which case they could end up in a five-team section, and England or Switzerland are potential opponents, neither of whom are in the Nations League.
Additionally, Ireland’s chances of facing Kazakhstan are lower due to UEFA’s travel restrictions. Twelve countries, including Ireland, have excessive travel distances to Kazakhstan, so only one team from that group can be paired with Kazakhstan. While it’s still possible, it’s less likely.
The Unpredictable Nations LeagueThe Nations League adds an extra layer of unpredictability. The competition features four quarter-finals:
Netherlands vs. SpainCroatia vs. FranceDenmark vs. PortugalItaly vs. Germany
These playoff semifinal match-ups will be labelled as Nations League quarter-final winners/losers 1-4, which means that at the time of the World Cup draw, it’s entirely possible that Ireland won’t know their exact opponent, only that they will be a formidable team.
World Cup Qualification TimelineFor the World Cup qualifiers, the five-team groups will start in March, while four-team groups will kick off in September. Matches are scheduled for September, October, and November, with a final window in June. The four-team groups also have the option to arrange two friendlies during the above windows.
What If Ireland Reaches the World Cup Playoffs?If Ireland does advance to the World Cup play-offs, the semi-final is scheduled for March 26, 2026, with the final five days later. So, though it looks bleak, all hope is not lost for the Boys in Green.
Pots for Friday’s draw
Pot 1: France, Spain, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Croatia, Switzerland, Denmark, and Austria
Pot 2: Ukraine, Sweden, Turkey, Wales, Hungary, Serbia, Poland, Romania, Greece, Slovakia, Czechia, and Norway
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Belarus, Kosovo, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Pot 5: Moldova, Malta, Andorra, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein, and San Marino
When and where?
Friday at 11 am at UEFA headquarters in Zurich.
Where can I watch?
The draw will be live on RTÉ Player and the RTÉ News channel.